TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 7:25 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for Netflix. While analysts typically provide price targets with a range of uncertainty, this market allows traders to express their beliefs about the probability of specific outcomes. It’s important to note that analyst predictions and the collective wisdom of the crowd represented by this market may differ, reflecting varying methodologies and information sources. The question remains whether the market will accurately predict the closing price, diverging from or aligning with the consensus of financial analysts.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes for the Netflix stock price. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of its probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date information and sentiment surrounding Netflix’s stock performance.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing stock price of Netflix (NFLX) on the final day of trading during the week of October 19 will be used to determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized financial data source, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the market’s result. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the accuracy of their predictions.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major company announcements from Netflix, such as quarterly earnings reports or subscriber growth figures, would likely have a substantial impact. Broader macroeconomic factors, including overall market sentiment and interest rate changes, could also influence investor confidence in Netflix. Unexpected news related to the streaming industry, such as competitive pressures or regulatory changes, could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market. Any significant shift in these areas could alter traders’ perceptions and drive changes in the odds.