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2,983,476,643

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$1,833,875,329

407,365

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4,365

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Netflix App Downloads in September
kalshi

Netflix App Downloads in September

Volume:
$59,059

Above 58

 - Kalshi

Above 58 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 8, 2026

Closed: Oct 7, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 58

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$19,612
N/A
N/A
$10,512
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 52

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,974
N/A
N/A
$2,829
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 61

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,318
N/A
N/A
$4,079
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 67

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,079
N/A
N/A
$3,749
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 64

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,268
N/A
N/A
$3,727
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 76

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,147
N/A
N/A
$2,147
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 73

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,066
N/A
N/A
$2,518
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 70

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,192
N/A
N/A
$2,118
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 82

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,404
N/A
N/A
$1,357
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

These markets track the performance of Netflix app downloads for September 2026, comparing them to the same month in the previous year. The outcomes depend on whether the reported growth rate exceeds specific thresholds, with higher thresholds representing stronger year-over-year increases.

Kalshi

All markets in this event are resolved based on the Carbon Arc Netflix App Downloads index for September 2026, which measures year-over-year changes in Netflix app downloads. Each market has a distinct threshold, and if the reported index value exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The determination is made using the first value reported by Carbon Arc, and any subsequent corrections or revisions after settlement will not affect the outcome. The index uses a base of 100 to represent equal downloads compared to the prior year, with values above 100 indicating growth and values below 100 indicating decline. Kalshi explicitly states it has no official affiliation with Netflix, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of future Netflix app downloads that may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide specific download projections, this market represents a weighted probability of various outcomes based on the informed speculation of many individual traders. If analysts are consistently predicting a certain download range, we might see corresponding price action in this market, but the market can also incorporate information and perspectives that aren't reflected in standard analyst reports. It’s a fascinating comparison of different forecasting methods.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for Netflix app downloads in September. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own expectations, leading to a dynamic pricing mechanism. The higher the demand for a particular outcome, the higher its price will climb, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of potential download figures.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of Netflix app downloads during the month of September. The exact methodology for counting downloads will be determined by the platform and publicly available prior to resolution. Traders should monitor official announcements and data releases related to Netflix app download statistics as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about potential catalysts that could influence the final outcome of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements from Netflix regarding new content releases, marketing campaigns, or international expansion plans could all impact app download numbers. Unexpected news related to competitor streaming services, changes in app store policies, or broader economic trends affecting consumer spending could also play a role. Positive or negative reviews of popular Netflix shows, viral marketing moments, or even significant outages affecting the app’s availability could all influence trader sentiment and drive price fluctuations in this market.