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NC-14 House Election Margin of Victory
Republican 0-5%
- Polymarket
Republican 0-5% - Polymarket
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Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 21h:00m:03s
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-14 House election by 0%-5%?
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Description
The 2026 NC-14 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NC-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 2026 NC-14 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NC-14 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market suggests a 37.5% probability for the leading candidate to win by a specific margin, which may diverge from polling averages. Prediction markets often incorporate factors beyond raw poll numbers, such as fundraising status, historical trends, and trader sentiment, potentially offering a complementary view to traditional surveys of voter intent.
On Polymarket, traders currently assign a 37.5% probability to the Republican candidate winning the NC-14 House election by a margin of 10%-15%. The market reflects collective expectations about voter preferences and campaign dynamics, updated continuously as new information emerges. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Volume and open interest levels show trader engagement, with shifts in odds often following polling updates or key campaign events. The current pricing balances bullish and bearish perspectives on the Republican performance in this district.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final margin of victory will be compared against the defined market categories to determine the winning outcome, reflecting the official vote count from the state election authority.
Several signals could influence this market before Nov 4, 2026. New public polls showing shifts in voter preferences will likely cause rapid adjustments. Major campaign developments—such as candidate debates, endorsements, or controversies—often reshape expectations and move odds. Economic announcements or national political trends may also affect trader sentiment. As the election approaches, localized events like voter registration changes or grassroots mobilization efforts can create short-term volatility, refining the market’s view of the likely margin of victory.
