TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
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Who will win the MT-01 House election?
Democratic Party
- Polymarket
Democratic Party - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:06h:44m
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?
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Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 US House of Representatives election for Montana's 1st congressional district. Markets exist on both Polymarket and Opinion, covering individual candidates and party outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Opinion markets utilize the same resolution criteria, relying on official election results and the FEC as the final arbiter.Primary resolution logic: Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/)Core resolution logic:
- The winner is determined by the party affiliation of the candidate who receives the most votes in the MT-01 congressional district.
- Party affiliation is based on ballot listing or identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called.
- Candidates without a clear party affiliation will be assigned based on their stated intent to caucus.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie: In the event of a tie, the resolution will follow the official procedures outlined by Montana state election law and the FEC. The outcome determined by those procedures will be used to resolve the market.
- Contested Election: If the election result is contested and subject to legal challenges, resolution will be delayed until the legal challenges are resolved and a final, official result is certified by the FEC.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Opinion
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of current voter intentions, this market aggregates informed speculation about future events, incorporating a wider range of data and analysis. The collective wisdom of traders can sometimes anticipate shifts in momentum or reveal hidden factors not captured in polls. It's important to remember that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses, and examining them together provides a more nuanced understanding of the MT-01 House election. The volume of $168,800 suggests significant interest in this event.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning candidate in the MT-01 House election, as declared by official election results, will determine the outcome of this market. The resolution will be based on the official count and any subsequent legal challenges that are finalized. Traders should monitor news sources for updates on the election results as we approach the resolution date. The outcome will be determined by the official results reported by relevant election authorities.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant fundraising announcements, and unexpected shifts in public opinion, as reflected in new polling data, could all move the odds. Debates between candidates are also likely to be influential events. Any unforeseen events affecting the candidates or the political landscape, such as scandals or major policy announcements, could also cause substantial shifts in the market. Changes in national political trends, or economic indicators impacting the district, could also influence trading activity in this market.
