TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 2, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks the performance of Monster Energy drink sales in September 2026 compared to the same month in the previous year. It uses a specific index to measure growth or decline in point-of-sale data, reflecting consumer purchasing trends through a comprehensive panel of in-store and online transactions.
All markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc Monster Energy Drinks Point of Sale Growth index for September 2026, with each market requiring the index to exceed a specific threshold (ranging from 98 to 110). The index measures year-over-year change, where 100 indicates equal sales to the prior year, values above 100 show growth, and values below indicate decline. Determination for all markets uses the first value reported by Carbon Arc, and any corrections or revisions after settlement do not affect the outcome. The index is derived from a point-of-sale receipt panel that captures in-store and online purchases via receipt-scanning and rewards apps, matched to the same period of the prior year. The panel updates daily, providing a real-time reflection of sales trends. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with or connected to the underlying company, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced interpretation of upcoming sales data. While analysts may incorporate a wide range of historical and qualitative factors, traders on Kalshi react dynamically to new news, financial reports, and market trends. This can lead to divergence — the market may price in a stronger or weaker outlook sooner than consensus analyst estimates, depending on real-time data flows and betting patterns.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous trading where participants submit bids and asks to determine the current probability of each possible sales growth outcome. The top outcome’s implied chance reflects the collective judgment of Kalshi traders, adjusted for liquidity and open interest. Volume of $188,277 helps gauge market depth, while price fluctuations respond to new information affecting Monster Energy’s sales expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect officially reported sales growth figures for Monster Energy in September, closing the market based on publicly available financial data rather than predictions or estimates.
Several signals could shift odds in this market before Oct 10, 2026. Key catalysts include Monster Energy’s quarterly earnings releases, broader beverage industry trends, retail sales data from major chains, and macroeconomic indicators affecting consumer spending. Any surprise announcements — such as supply chain updates, marketing campaigns, or competitor activity — may also cause rapid price adjustments as traders reassess the likely sales growth outcome.