TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$185,665,189

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,833,875,329

407,365

Markets across

40,470

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,365

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Minnesota Senate Election Winner
⌛Ending Soon
opinion

Who will win the Minnesota Senate election?

Oct 19, 2026, 10:22 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Peggy Flanagan (D)

 - Opinion

Peggy Flanagan (D) - Opinion

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:11h:28m

Peggy Flanagan (D)

97%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 97¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

Peggy Flanagan (D)

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 11h 28m
Active
opinion

Michele Tafoya (R)

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 11h 28m
Active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

On Opinion, the dashboard for the Minnesota Senate election tracks the implied probability of different outcomes, the price history of contracts representing those outcomes, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $0, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours. Users can view how the market is pricing in various candidates and track changes in sentiment over time. This allows participants to assess the collective wisdom of the crowd regarding the election's likely result.

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different outlook than traditional polling averages. While polls show a close race, this market reflects a higher probability for one candidate to win. It’s important to remember that polls capture a snapshot in time and are subject to sampling error, while prediction markets aggregate information from a diverse range of participants who have a financial stake in the outcome. This can lead to a more accurate forecast, as traders are incentivized to incorporate all available information into their decisions.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results announced by election authorities for the Minnesota Senate election. The candidate who receives the most votes will be declared the winner, and that outcome will determine the settlement of contracts within this market. Traders who correctly predicted the winner will receive a payout based on the odds at the time of their trade.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major campaign events, such as debates or rallies, could shift voter sentiment and influence trading activity. Unexpected endorsements from prominent figures or significant news coverage regarding candidate platforms or personal lives could also cause price fluctuations. Additionally, changes in polling data, economic indicators, or national political trends could all impact the perceived probabilities of each candidate winning the Minnesota Senate election, leading to shifts in this market.