TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 4:26 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election in Brazil, specifically forecasting whether Cleitinho Azevedo will win. Currently, the consensus probability across Kalshi and Polymarket is 98.2%. This aggregated view uses official results from the TSE as its resolution source – the market resolves to Yes if Mateus Simões wins the election. Keep an eye on the election results following the first round of voting, expected around October 5, 2026, to see if a runoff will be required to determine the winner.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi markets resolve only if a pre-defined set of candidates win, while Polymarket includes a wider range of candidates and an 'Other' option, resolving based on official results.Hero tip: Focus on Polymarket markets for a more complete view of potential outcomes and a more reliable resolution process tied to the official Brazilian election authority.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' only if one of six specific candidates (Cleitinho Azevedo, Rodrigo Pacheco, Alexandre Kalil, Mateus Simões, Carlos Viana, Gabriel Azevedo) wins the election. Key Quote: 'If Cleitinho Azevedo wins the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the winner of the election as reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE), including an 'Other' option. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)'
Polymarket
The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Kalshi
The winner is determined by the candidate who receives the most votes according to Brazil's electoral system and either is inaugurated, sworn in, takes office, or the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office. Resolution is based on official certification by the relevant electoral authority. If results are contested, the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction prevails. The market remains open until a rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. If results are annulled after announcement but before the winner takes office, the market remains open until the re-run election or expiration.
Frequently asked questions
Prices for the Minas Gerais governor election may vary between Polymarket and Kalshi due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading limits, and fee structure, all of which can influence price discovery. Additionally, differing levels of liquidity and information flow on each platform can contribute to temporary price discrepancies. While both markets ultimately aim to predict the same outcome, these platform-specific dynamics can create short-term variations in the odds.