TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 2, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of Miller Lite beer sales in September 2026 compared to the same month in the previous year. The outcome depends on whether the sales growth index, reported by Carbon Arc, exceeds specific thresholds. The index reflects year-over-year changes in consumer spending on Miller Lite through a panel that captures in-store and online purchases.
All markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc Miller Lite Point of Sale Growth index for September 2026, with each market requiring the index to exceed a specific threshold (ranging from 79 to 91). The index measures year-over-year sales growth, where 100 indicates no change from the prior year, values above 100 signify growth, and values below 100 indicate decline. Determination for all markets is based on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for September 2026; any subsequent corrections or revisions after settlement will not affect the outcome. The index is calculated using a point-of-sale receipt panel that tracks in-store and online purchases via receipt-scanning and rewards apps, matched to the same period of the prior year. The panel updates daily as new data becomes available. Kalshi is not affiliated with the underlying company, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Several signals could shift this market before Oct 10, 2026. Key catalysts include preliminary sales announcements, industry-wide trends affecting consumer beverage spending, and macroeconomic indicators such as inflation or disposable income changes. Media coverage of brand performance, advertising campaigns, or competitor activity may also influence trader sentiment. Any surprise data releases—or revisions to previous estimates—could cause rapid price adjustments on Kalshi as participants reassess probabilities.