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Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 26?
polymarket

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 26?

Volume:
$1,600

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 26?

 - Polymarket

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 26? - Polymarket

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Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 6:05 PM EST

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Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 26?

View
100%
47%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,600
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 26, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 26, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the MSFT stock market tracks the current odds of Microsoft stock closing up or down on Oct 26, 2026. You’ll find a price history showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $1,536. The total volume traded on this market is $1,600. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and see how much capital is backing each possible outcome. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective prediction.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for the MSFT stock market. While many analysts provide price targets and recommendations, this market represents the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a diverse range of opinions and information. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert predictions and the collective forecast expressed through this market, especially when considering unforeseen events or rapidly changing market conditions. This difference highlights the unique value of prediction markets as a forward-looking indicator.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Microsoft stock will be up or down on Oct 26, 2026. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares indicating an expected increase, the price rises, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds continuously adapt to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Microsoft (MSFT) stock on that date will be the determining factor. If the closing price is higher than the opening price, the ‘Up’ outcome will prevail. Conversely, if the closing price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered the result. The resolution will be based on publicly available financial data and established market practices.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major company announcements from Microsoft regarding earnings, new product launches, or significant partnerships would likely have a substantial impact. Broader economic indicators, such as inflation reports, interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, and overall market sentiment, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected geopolitical events or industry-specific news affecting the technology sector could also cause shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market. Any news that alters investor confidence in Microsoft’s future prospects could drive price movement.