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Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 Azure revenue growth (constant currency)?
polymarket

Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 Azure revenue growth (constant currency)?

Volume:
$14,508

48% to 50%

 - Polymarket

48% to 50% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 6:04 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

48% to 50%

View
100%
70%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,459
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

46% to 48%

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,238
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

44% to 46%

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,736
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50%+

View
0%
34%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,509
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<44%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$567
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to Microsoft's Azure revenue growth (constant currency) (year-over-year) for the upcoming first fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Microsoft's Azure revenue growth (constant currency) (year-over-year) for the upcoming first fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Microsoft Azure revenue market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how traders are pricing the likelihood of different Azure revenue growth percentages for Q1. Currently, the total volume for this market is $14,424 and the 24-hour volume is $1,874. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment and allows you to analyze how the perceived probability of various outcomes is changing as new information becomes available.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for Microsoft's Q1 Azure revenue growth. While analysts’ estimates vary, this market provides a unique, aggregated view of what informed traders believe is most likely to occur. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent a collective intelligence, potentially incorporating information not readily available in standard financial reports or analyst models. This difference in outlook can be valuable for a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different Azure revenue growth outcomes. The price of each share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically as traders react to new information and refine their predictions. This creates a constantly updated forecast based on the collective wisdom of the crowd, offering a forward-looking assessment of Microsoft’s performance.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual Microsoft Q1 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official figures released by Microsoft in their earnings report. Traders will then be paid out based on the final outcome and the shares they hold in this market. It’s important to monitor news and announcements from Microsoft leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Any news regarding Microsoft’s overall financial health, particularly relating to cloud computing and Azure, would be a key driver. Major announcements about new Azure services, partnerships, or customer wins could also impact trading activity. Additionally, broader economic indicators, such as overall cloud spending trends and macroeconomic conditions, could influence traders’ expectations and shift the odds in this market. Unexpected competition from other cloud providers could also play a role.