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Science and Technology
Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on October 26?
polymarket

Will MSFT close above its price on October 26?

Volume:
$2,260

$500

 - Polymarket

$500 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 6:05 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$500

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$827
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$530

View
100%
81%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$643
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$510

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$53
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$520

View
100%
23%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$540

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$700
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the MSFT closing price market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You’ll find a visual representation of how traders are pricing the probability of Microsoft (MSFT) closing above a certain price on October 26. The dashboard also displays the total volume traded in this market, currently at $2,260, and the 24-hour volume, which is $885. This provides a real-time overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding MSFT’s potential price movement.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of whether Microsoft’s stock will close above a specified price on October 26. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which are often based on fundamental and technical analysis. While analysts provide specific price targets, this market represents a broader, aggregated view of probabilities as expressed by traders willing to put capital behind their beliefs. It’s important to note that market participants may incorporate a wider range of information, including sentiment and unexpected events, into their predictions.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of Microsoft (MSFT) closing above the target price on October 26. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that as more traders believe the price will be exceeded, the price of shares increases, and vice versa. This creates a real-time estimate of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Microsoft (MSFT) stock on October 26 will be assessed against the target price defined within the market. The market will settle to 100 if the closing price is above the target, and to 0 if it is at or below. Traders holding shares representing the correct outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major company announcements from Microsoft, such as earnings reports or product launches, would likely cause price fluctuations. Broader economic news, including interest rate decisions or inflation data, could also influence investor sentiment and, consequently, the market price. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in the overall stock market could also play a role. Any news that alters perceptions of Microsoft’s future performance has the potential to move this market before Oct 26, 2026.