TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Microsoft (MSFT) above … on October 5?
opinion

Microsoft (MSFT) above … on October 5?

Volume:
$0

500

 - Opinion

500 - Opinion

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 11:01 PM EST

opinion

Opinion

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

500

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

510

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

520

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

530

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

540

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Microsoft (MSFT) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Microsoft (MSFT), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Microsoft (MSFT) trades governs.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Microsoft (MSFT) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Microsoft (MSFT), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Microsoft (MSFT) trades governs.

Frequently asked questions

On Opinion, the dashboard for the MSFT stock price market tracks the current odds of the stock price being above a certain level on October 5, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows you to see how other traders are positioning themselves and gauge overall market sentiment regarding Microsoft’s future performance.

Currently, prediction market participants believe there is a significant chance Microsoft’s stock will be above a certain level on the specified date. This contrasts with typical analyst forecasts, which often provide a range of potential outcomes with associated probabilities. While analysts rely on financial modeling and company reports, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk based on their own research and insights. It’s a real-time assessment of future possibilities, differing from static analyst reports.

On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the MSFT stock price will be above a certain level on October 5, 2026. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the aggregate opinion of all participants. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds can change rapidly in response to new information or shifts in sentiment, creating a constantly updated forecast.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official closing stock price of Microsoft (MSFT) on that date. This market will determine whether the stock price meets the predefined threshold, and payouts will be distributed to traders who correctly predicted the outcome. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and Oct 5, 2026. Major company announcements from Microsoft, such as earnings reports, new product launches, or significant partnerships, would likely cause price fluctuations. Broader economic trends, including interest rate changes, inflation data, and overall market sentiment, could also play a role. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in the technology sector could also impact investor confidence and, consequently, the trading activity in this market.