TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Microsoft (MSFT) above … on October 12?
opinion

Microsoft (MSFT) above … on October 12?

Volume:
$0

510

 - Opinion

510 - Opinion

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 11:01 PM EST

opinion

Opinion

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

510

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

520

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

530

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

540

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

550

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Microsoft (MSFT) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Microsoft (MSFT), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Microsoft (MSFT) trades governs.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Microsoft (MSFT) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Microsoft (MSFT), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Microsoft (MSFT) trades governs.

Frequently asked questions

On Opinion, the dashboard for the MSFT stock price market tracks the current implied probability of Microsoft’s stock price being above a certain level on October 12, 2026. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart illustrating how the market has moved over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded in this market is $0, reflecting the collective predictions of participants on Opinion.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently issue price targets based on financial modeling and company reports, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals who are putting their money where their predictions are. This can lead to divergences, especially when anticipating events influenced by unpredictable factors or sentiment shifts. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own view on the future performance of MSFT.

On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract directly reflects the probability of the event occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand; increased buying pressure drives the price up, indicating a higher probability, while selling pressure lowers the price. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations for the MSFT stock price.

This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the closing price of Microsoft (MSFT) stock on October 12, 2026. The market will determine whether the stock price is above the specified level at that time. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider and will be used to settle all outstanding contracts in this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and its resolution. Major announcements from Microsoft regarding earnings, new products, or strategic partnerships would likely cause movement. Broader economic indicators, such as interest rate changes or shifts in the overall stock market, could also play a role. Unexpected news related to the technology sector or competitive pressures could also impact investor sentiment and, consequently, the price action in this market. Any significant event affecting the perceived future prospects of MSFT could lead to substantial shifts in trading activity.