TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 6:03 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MU%2FUSD.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MU%2FUSD.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect expectations about Micron's stock price at the end of the week of October 5th. These expectations are formed by the collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket. It's useful to compare this to what financial analysts are predicting for Micron. Do analysts generally foresee a positive or negative trend for the stock during this period? Are their price targets higher or lower than what is implied by the probabilities in this market? Comparing these viewpoints can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether Micron's stock will close above or below a certain price. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders exchange positions based on new information and their own analysis. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations for Micron’s stock performance, distinct from traditional polling methods.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the closing price of Micron (MU) stock for the week of October 5th is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will reflect whether the stock closed at or above a specified price point, as determined by standard financial data sources. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout proportional to their winning contracts, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake. The final price will be the determining factor.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Any significant news related to Micron, such as earnings reports, product announcements, or changes in analyst ratings, could cause the market to shift. Broader economic indicators, like inflation data or interest rate decisions, could also impact investor sentiment towards the semiconductor industry. Unexpected events impacting the technology sector, or even global market volatility, could also move this market. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential price movements in the coming days.