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$154.4b

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417,059

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Michigan Senate Election Winner
⌛Ending Soon
opinion

Who will win the Michigan Senate election?

Oct 16, 2026, 12:25 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$24
Volume 24h:
$7N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Abdul El-Sayed (D)

 - Opinion

Abdul El-Sayed (D) - Opinion

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:05h:10m

Abdul El-Sayed (D)

85%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 81¢ buys you 123 shares | Odds: 85% Total Payout: $123 | Net Profit: $23 Multiplier: 1.23x | ROI: 23% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Trade
85%
Yes 81¢No 24¢
5¢
N/A
$24
40%
N/A
N/A
1d 5h 10m
Active
opinion

Mike Rogers (R)

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 5h 10m
Active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

On Opinion, the dashboard for the Michigan Senate election tracks the implied probability of different outcomes, represented as odds. It also displays the price history of the market, allowing you to see how expectations have shifted over time. Currently, the total volume traded on this market is $24, with $0 changing hands in the last 24 hours. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets regarding the election’s result, offering a dynamic perspective beyond traditional polling data.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages for the Michigan Senate election. Polling data typically focuses on stated voter intentions, while this market represents what individuals are willing to *risk* on a particular outcome. This difference can be significant, as prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information, including fundraising data, candidate performance, and even subtle shifts in public sentiment. Discrepancies between polls and this market can indicate areas where pollsters may be under- or over-estimating support for a candidate.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the Michigan Senate election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by the relevant election authorities. The market will settle to 100% for the winning candidate, and 0% for all others. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the odds at the time of their trade, while those who bet on the losing candidate will forfeit their stake.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution on Nov 4, 2026. Major developments in the campaign, such as significant fundraising announcements, impactful debate performances, or unexpected endorsements, could all shift trader sentiment. Changes in national political trends, economic indicators, or even unforeseen events impacting the candidates could also play a role. Furthermore, the release of new polling data, especially if it deviates substantially from current expectations, has the potential to cause considerable volatility in this market.