TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

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40,345

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4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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Kalshi:

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McDonald's Foot Traffic in September
kalshi

McDonald's Foot Traffic in September

Volume:
$60,722

Above 98

 - Kalshi

Above 98 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 8, 2026

Closed: Oct 7, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 98

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,582
N/A
N/A
$2,815
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,142
N/A
N/A
$3,598
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 96

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,781
N/A
N/A
$2,203
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 97

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,676
N/A
N/A
$2,426
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 100

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,957
N/A
N/A
$5,381
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 101

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,857
N/A
N/A
$3,690
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 104

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,548
N/A
N/A
$3,158
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 106

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,895
N/A
N/A
$1,175
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 103

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,037
N/A
N/A
$887
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 102

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,998
N/A
N/A
$1,164
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 105

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,945
N/A
N/A
$2,234
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 107

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,222
N/A
N/A
$2,222
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 108

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,083
N/A
N/A
$1,469
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

The event tracks McDonald's customer traffic performance for September 2026 using a specialized index that compares visits to the same month in the previous year. The index accounts for variables like weather and holidays to ensure accurate year-over-year comparison. Higher index values reflect increased foot traffic compared to the prior year.

Kalshi

All markets in this event are resolved based on the Carbon Arc McDonald's Foot Traffic index for September 2026. The index measures year-over-year changes in customer visits, with 100 representing equal traffic to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth, while values below 100 indicate decline. Each market has a specific threshold (ranging from 96 to 108) that must be exceeded for the market to resolve to 'Yes'. The determining value is the first report published by Carbon Arc, and any subsequent corrections or revisions after settlement will not affect the outcome. The index is calculated using mobile location data from over 200 million devices, matched to the same calendar days as the prior year and normalized for seasonality, weather, and holidays. The panel updates daily as new data becomes available.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the McDonald's foot traffic market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different outcomes for McDonald's customer traffic in September. The interface updates continuously, reflecting the latest betting activity and market sentiment as the resolution date approaches.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. Analysts may incorporate macro trends, earnings reports, and consumer behavior models, while traders on Kalshi respond quickly to news, social media sentiment, and real-time data. This can lead to divergence, especially around events like holiday weekends or economic shifts.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through continuous bidding and asking, with the top outcome’s chance represented as a percentage. The current odds reflect the collective judgment of participants about McDonald's foot traffic for September, adjusted for new information. Volume of $60,722 and 24-hour volume of $11,834 show how actively the market is trading.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the foot traffic data for September is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final figure will be compared against the market's defined thresholds to determine which outcome is correct.

Several signals could shift expectations for this market before Oct 15, 2026. Key catalysts include McDonald's earnings reports, consumer confidence surveys, major marketing campaigns, or unexpected events like weather disruptions or supply chain issues. Real-time foot traffic data from third-party analytics firms may also influence trader sentiment, especially if there are notable deviations from historical patterns.