TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 8:03 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Polymarket
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set prices through a continuous auction where buyers and sellers agree on contract prices. The current implied probability reflects the collective assessment of all participants about which candidate is most likely to finish second. Market depth and volume influence price stability, and any significant news about the candidates or electoral dynamics can cause rapid shifts in pricing.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are officially declared and verifiable from credible public reporting. The second-place finisher in the Mato Grosso Senate race will be determined by the final, certified vote count, and the market will close accordingly to reflect the confirmed runner-up.
Key events such as debates, major policy announcements, scandals, or shifts in voter turnout could move this market. Economic updates, endorsements from influential figures, and changing polling numbers may also impact trader sentiment. Regional voting trends and campaign performance in the weeks leading up to the election are additional factors that can cause volatility or sustained moves in market pricing.
