TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 4:17 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Polymarket
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often differ from polling averages because they incorporate bettors' financial stakes and real-time information flows. While polls sample public opinion at fixed points, this market prices in expectations about campaign performance, economic conditions, and late-breaking news. Traders may react more sharply to events that polls cannot capture, leading to divergence between the two measures.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the odds through buying and selling contracts that pay out based on the election result. The current implied chance for each candidate reflects the balance of buy and sell orders, with liquidity determined by total trading volume. As new information emerges — such as debate performance or economic data — prices adjust to reflect the evolving outlook.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote count will determine which candidate officially wins the Mato Grosso governor race, settling all open positions at that time.
Key events like candidate debates, economic announcements, scandals, and shifting poll numbers can significantly move this market. Major news coverage, endorsements from influential figures, and changes in campaign funding may also sway trader sentiment. As Oct 5, 2026 approaches, any final surges in voter turnout or last-minute campaign strategies are likely to produce sharp price movements.
