TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 1:03 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market resolves to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen’s departure as Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The departure will be considered to be announced when Marine Le Pen, the National Assembly of France, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Le Pen has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Marine Le Pen and the National Assembly of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
This market resolves to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen’s departure as Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The departure will be considered to be announced when Marine Le Pen, the National Assembly of France, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Le Pen has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Marine Le Pen and the National Assembly of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a relatively low probability of Marine Le Pen losing her Assembly seat. This contrasts with recent polling data, which shows varying levels of support for her and other political figures. It’s important to remember that polls capture a snapshot in time and are subject to methodological limitations, while this market reflects continuously updated expectations based on real money at stake. Discrepancies between prediction markets and polls can arise due to differing methodologies, information access, and incentives among participants.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of Marine Le Pen losing her Assembly seat by the resolution date. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand; if more traders believe she will lose her seat, the price of 'yes' shares increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective wisdom of participants.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Marine Le Pen has officially lost her seat as a Member of the National Assembly before that date. This will be determined by official announcements from the French government or relevant electoral authorities. The market will then settle based on whether Le Pen is no longer a member of the National Assembly at the time of resolution.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major political developments within France, such as shifts in public opinion, changes in Le Pen’s political strategy, or legal challenges to her position, could all move the market. Unexpected electoral results in other regions or national elections could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, any significant news regarding Le Pen’s personal conduct or political alliances could trigger price fluctuations. Monitoring these events will be key to understanding how this market evolves before Nov 1, 2026.
