TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 6:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Polymarket
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in a particular outcome, and the price of these shares reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy shares in a candidate, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of victory. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with traders adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis. This creates a dynamic and efficient way to forecast the election result.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results announced by the relevant electoral authorities in Maranhão. The candidate who receives the most votes in the election will be declared the winner, and that outcome will determine the settlement of this market. Traders who correctly predicted the winner will receive a payout based on the odds at the time of their trade.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements from influential political figures, unexpected shifts in public opinion revealed by new polls, and significant campaign events – such as debates or rallies – could all cause price fluctuations. Any news related to potential controversies involving the candidates, or changes in the economic conditions of Maranhão, could also move the market. Additionally, large trading volume from informed participants could signal a change in expectations and influence the odds.
