TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 2:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether María Corina Machado will enter Venezuela by October 31, 2026, with the leading outcome currently trading at 100.0% on Polymarket. The market will also resolve to “Yes” if she enters Venezuela by December 31, 2026, currently priced at 100.0%. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, as defined in the market’s resolution rules. Traders should closely watch for any announcements regarding travel plans or restrictions leading up to January 31, 2026, as this date marks a key window for potential resolution according to recent context.
Polymarket
If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and Janaury 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of María Corina Machado entering Venezuela. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts, providing a real-time assessment of the likelihood of the event. The current price indicates what percentage of the total market capitalization a share costs, and thus the market’s collective probability assessment.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether María Corina Machado physically enters Venezuelan territory before the resolution date. This will be verified against credible public sources, such as news reports and official statements, to determine if she has successfully crossed the border. The market will then settle based on whether this condition is met, distributing payouts to those who correctly predicted the outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any official announcements from the Venezuelan government regarding restrictions on Machado’s entry or potential arrest warrants would likely impact the odds. Developments in international diplomatic efforts, particularly from the United States or regional powers, could also shift the market. Unexpected logistical challenges, such as travel restrictions or border closures, could also play a role. Finally, any credible reports of Machado’s planned entry attempts, or changes in her public statements, would likely cause fluctuations in trading volume and price.
