TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 12:21 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track projected spending levels through the Lululemon Credit Card in September 2026, using a year-over-year index to gauge consumer behavior and financial performance.
All markets resolve based on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for the Lululemon Credit Card Spend index in September 2026. Each market has a specific threshold; if the reported index exceeds the threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. Post-settlement corrections or revisions do not alter the outcome. The index reflects year-over-year changes in spending, with values above 100 indicating growth compared to the same month in the prior year. The data comes from Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, updated daily. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with Lululemon or ownership of related trademarks.
On Kalshi, current odds reflect a consensus among traders about likely credit card spend results, which can diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. Where analysts may project conservative or bullish scenarios based on historical trends, this market incorporates real-time sentiment and speculative positioning. Traders might assign a higher or lower probability to certain outcomes than the average analyst, especially as retail indicators or consumer behavior shifts nearer to Oct 14, 2026.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine prices through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the probability they assign to the most likely spend range. Volume of $15,252 and recent 24-hour volume of $4,490 indicate liquidity and interest. The market price adjusts dynamically as new information about Lululemon’s consumer behavior or economic conditions emerges.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on officially released financial data covering September credit card spend, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process aligned with public records.
Key signals that could shift this market include Lululemon’s quarterly earnings releases, changes in consumer spending patterns, economic announcements affecting retail trends, and any major promotional campaigns or discounts the brand rolls out. Media coverage of consumer sentiment or credit card usage trends may also influence trader expectations and adjust odds leading up to the resolution date.