TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 2:03 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
Each market in this event will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hourly odds value is higher than Flávio Bolsonaro's hourly odds value in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and 12:00 AM ET on the day after that market's listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or Flávio Bolsonaro in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing before 12:00 AM ET on the day after that market's listed date, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro between market creation and 12:00 AM ET on the day after that market's listed date, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/brazil-president-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Polymarket
Each market in this event will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hourly odds value is higher than Flávio Bolsonaro's hourly odds value in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and 12:00 AM ET on the day after that market's listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or Flávio Bolsonaro in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing before 12:00 AM ET on the day after that market's listed date, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro between market creation and 12:00 AM ET on the day after that market's listed date, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/brazil-president-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the odds on Polymarket suggest a high probability of Lula flipping Bolsonaro. These odds are notably higher than many recent polling averages, which show a tighter race. However, it's important to remember that prediction markets represent more than just voter intention—they incorporate expectations about turnout, potential scandals, and other factors that polls may not fully capture. This market provides a different perspective on the election outcome than traditional polling data, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a 'yes' share—representing Lula flipping Bolsonaro—fluctuates based on supply and demand. A higher price indicates greater confidence in that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregate assessment of all participants, and the 24-hour volume shows how actively traders are updating their views on the election.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which candidate is officially declared the winner of the Brazilian presidential election by the relevant electoral authorities. The market will then settle to 100% for the winning outcome and 0% for the losing outcome, based on the official results. Traders should monitor news sources for the official announcement to understand when this market will be finalized.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Major developments in the Brazilian economy, such as unexpected growth or recession, could shift voter sentiment. Any significant scandals involving either candidate, or major policy announcements, would also likely impact trading activity. Additionally, shifts in endorsements from key political figures or changes in polling data could influence the price of shares in this market. Unexpected international events or interventions could also play a role in shaping the outcome and, consequently, the market’s price.
