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Lockheed Martin F-35 deliveries in Q3
kalshi

What will be the F-35 delivery count by Lockheed Martin in Q3?

Volume:
$18,667

Above 35

 - Kalshi

Above 35 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 12:31 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 35

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,118
N/A
N/A
$1,136
3mo 2w 2d
Yes
kalshi

Above 30

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,220
N/A
N/A
$534
3mo 2w 2d
Yes
kalshi

Above 20

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,330
N/A
N/A
$422
3mo 2w 2d
Yes
kalshi

Above 40

View
100%
65%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,259
N/A
N/A
$673
3mo 2w 2d
Yes
kalshi

Above 25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,098
N/A
N/A
$529
3mo 2w 2d
Yes
kalshi

Above 45

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,474
N/A
N/A
$1,314
3mo 2w 2d
No
kalshi

Above 55

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,250
N/A
N/A
$210
3mo 2w 2d
No
kalshi

Above 50

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,892
N/A
N/A
$156
3mo 2w 2d
No
kalshi

Above 60

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$23
3mo 2w 2d
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the performance of Lockheed Martin in delivering F-35 aircraft during a specific quarter. It focuses on the company's ability to meet production and delivery targets, which are critical indicators of its operational efficiency and contract fulfillment. The outcome depends on the official quarterly report of aircraft deliveries.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple thresholds of F-35 aircraft deliveries by Lockheed Martin Corporation in Q3 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific delivery threshold, ranging from above 20 to above 60 aircraft. If the company reports deliveries exceeding any of these thresholds, the respective market resolves to Yes. The structure allows for progressive resolution, where higher thresholds build upon the conditions of lower ones. All outcomes are determined solely by the official quarterly delivery figures reported by Lockheed Martin, with no consideration for adjustments or interpretations beyond the stated numbers.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the current odds and price history for the F-35 delivery market, along with 24-hour volume of $1,907. It provides a visual representation of how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different delivery outcomes for the quarter, updated in real time to reflect market activity and sentiment.

On Kalshi, the odds in this market reflect the collective wisdom of traders, which can diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. Where analysts may publish detailed reports with specific numbers, traders in this market continuously adjust their positions based on real-time information, news, and expectations about Lockheed Martin's performance. Comparing the two offers a unique view of market sentiment versus institutional research.

This market resolves around Feb 17, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the officially reported number of F-35 deliveries for the quarter, as documented by authoritative defense industry sources and government announcements.

Several signals could shift this market before it settles. Key catalysts include updates on production line efficiency, government contract amendments, supply chain announcements, or geopolitical developments affecting aerospace manufacturing. Any news that alters the expected delivery timeline — whether positive or negative — is likely to create price movement on Kalshi as traders reassess probabilities.