TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 2:54 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks which political party or coalition will win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election. Currently, the consensus probability that Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) will achieve this is 97.3%. This forecast aggregates data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on official results reported by the Latvian Central Election Commission, as detailed in the resolution source. The market will resolve to “Other” if definitive results are not available by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, so keep an eye on developments following the October 3, 2026 election date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket offers markets for many individual parties, while Kalshi focuses on a smaller set of major contenders, creating a scope difference.Hero tip: Focus on the major parties offered on Kalshi for more direct exposure to the election outcome. Be mindful of liquidity dilution on Polymarket due to the larger number of options.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Offers markets for a large number of individual parties and a general 'other' option, resolving based on the party/coalition with the most seats. "This market will resolve based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament."
- Kalshi: Offers markets for a smaller set of major parties/coalitions, resolving to 'Yes' if that party wins the election. "If [Party Name] wins the 2026 Latvia parliamentary elections, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election. In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).
Kalshi
The market resolves based on which party or coalition wins the 2026 Latvia parliamentary elections. The winner is determined by the party or coalition with the most seats. If two parties tie in seats, the one entering government resolves to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote resolves to Yes and all others to No. Only coalitions formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count; post-election governing arrangements do not qualify. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. Resolution is based on official certification by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. If results are annulled after announcement but before the winner takes office, the market remains open until re-run election or expiration.
Frequently asked questions
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major political endorsements, unexpected shifts in public opinion revealed by late-stage polling, or significant gaffes by leading candidates could all cause price movements. Changes in the economic outlook for Latvia, or external geopolitical events impacting the country, might also influence traders’ assessments. Any news related to potential election interference or irregularities could also lead to volatility. Monitoring these factors closely will be crucial for understanding how the probabilities for the Latvian election outcome evolve.