TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Sep 9, 12:40 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the LAPTOP token is listed for spot trading on the specified exchange within 30 days after the token's launch (TGE). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token referenced in this market is LAPTOP, the token announced by Hunter Biden for launch on Base, as identified by the token's official channels (https://x.com/Laptoptoken) and confirmed by Hunter Biden or his official representatives. The token's launch (TGE) is defined as the first time the token is actively and publicly tradable. A qualifying listing means the token is available for spot trading on the exchange's primary global platform at any point from the token's launch through 11:59 PM ET on the 30th calendar day following the calendar day of launch (measured in ET). Perpetual futures, other derivatives, and pre-launch markets do not qualify. Roadmap additions, listing announcements, and deposit-only support do not qualify unless spot trading is live by the deadline. Listings available only on regional or affiliate platforms (e.g. Binance.US, Binance TR, Binance Alpha, Coinbase International Exchange, Upbit Singapore) do not qualify. A listing qualifies regardless of jurisdictional availability. Spot trading does not need to be accessible in any specific country or region, provided it is live on the exchange's primary global platform. If the LAPTOP token has not launched by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the respective exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the LAPTOP token is listed for spot trading on the specified exchange within 30 days after the token's launch (TGE). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token referenced in this market is LAPTOP, the token announced by Hunter Biden for launch on Base, as identified by the token's official channels (https://x.com/Laptoptoken) and confirmed by Hunter Biden or his official representatives. The token's launch (TGE) is defined as the first time the token is actively and publicly tradable. A qualifying listing means the token is available for spot trading on the exchange's primary global platform at any point from the token's launch through 11:59 PM ET on the 30th calendar day following the calendar day of launch (measured in ET). Perpetual futures, other derivatives, and pre-launch markets do not qualify. Roadmap additions, listing announcements, and deposit-only support do not qualify unless spot trading is live by the deadline. Listings available only on regional or affiliate platforms (e.g. Binance.US, Binance TR, Binance Alpha, Coinbase International Exchange, Upbit Singapore) do not qualify. A listing qualifies regardless of jurisdictional availability. Spot trading does not need to be accessible in any specific country or region, provided it is live on the exchange's primary global platform. If the LAPTOP token has not launched by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the respective exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data regarding the likelihood of a LAPTOP listing. While polls capture stated opinions, this market reflects what people are willing to *wager* on, often revealing more genuine beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like motivated reasoning in polls, or information advantages held by traders in this market. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own assessment of the event’s probability. This market provides a real-money incentive for accurate forecasting, potentially leading to more precise predictions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the event’s outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of the LAPTOP being listed within 30 days of the TGE. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd, incorporating available information and anticipating future developments. Volume of $177,613 and 24-hour volume of $14,571 demonstrate the level of activity and interest in this market.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a LAPTOP is officially listed on the specified platform within 30 days of the TGE. The determination will be based on publicly available information and established criteria for what constitutes a valid listing. Traders should monitor news sources and official announcements for updates leading up to the resolution date. This market provides a way to express your belief about this event’s likelihood before that time.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements regarding the TGE date, or any delays to it, would be a major catalyst. News reports or leaks about potential LAPTOP listings, or discussions about listing strategies, could also drive price movement. Positive or negative developments related to the project’s overall progress and community support could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected regulatory changes or security concerns could also play a role. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding how this market evolves leading up to its resolution on Dec 31, 2026.
