TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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Kalshi:

63%

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KY-01 House Election Winner
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

KY-01 House Election Winner

Jan 28, 2026, 4:38 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$50,955
Volume 24h:
$68
202%
Liquidity:
$75,890
137%
Open interest:
$3,354N/A

Republican Party

 - Polymarket

Republican Party - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:07h:35m

Will the Republican Party win the KY-01 House seat?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 98.6¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: 1,187%
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Republican Party

Trade
98%
1%
Yes 98.6¢No 2.8¢
1.4¢
$31,869
$34,041
0.1%
0.57%
N/A
1d 7h 35m
Active
polymarket

Democratic Party

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 3¢No 98.5¢
1.5¢
$44,021
$16,914
0.21%
0.27%
N/A
1d 7h 35m
Active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the KY-01 House election tracks the implied probability of different outcomes, the price history of contracts representing those outcomes, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $50,955, with $68 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how traders are assessing the likelihood of each candidate winning, offering a real-time view of market sentiment. It’s a dynamic tool for anyone following the race and interested in understanding the collective predictions of informed participants.

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a significant likelihood of a particular outcome in the KY-01 House election. However, it's important to remember that prediction markets and polling averages represent different data points. Polls capture a snapshot of stated voter intentions at a specific time, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like strategic voting, information asymmetry, and differing levels of voter engagement. It’s often insightful to analyze both sources to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the race’s dynamics.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which candidate is officially declared the winner of the KY-01 House election by the relevant election authorities. The market will then settle to 100% for the winning candidate and 0% for all others. Traders should monitor news sources and official election results to understand when the outcome is finalized and the market is settled.

Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and Nov 4, 2026. Major events like candidate debates, significant endorsements, and the release of new polling data could all shift market sentiment. Unexpected economic news or national political developments could also play a role. Furthermore, any controversies or scandals involving the candidates could lead to rapid price adjustments. Monitoring these events and assessing their potential impact on the race is crucial for understanding how this market might evolve.