TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 10:42 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This event group concerns the outcome of the 2026 Kraków mayoral election in Poland. Markets ask whether specific candidates will win the election, and also include an 'other' option. The election may require a runoff if no candidate achieves a majority in the first round.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket includes an 'Other' candidate market and a resolution deadline, while Kalshi only lists specific candidates and lacks these features.Hero tip: Consider the possibility of a candidate not listed on Kalshi winning, which would resolve the Polymarket 'Other' market to 'Yes' but leave the Kalshi markets unresolved or incorrectly resolved.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to the candidate who becomes mayor, with a fallback to 'Other' if no result is known by December 31, 2026. Includes a market for 'another candidate'. "If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”"
- Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if a specific listed candidate wins the election. No 'Other' market or defined resolution deadline. "If [Candidate Name] wins the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
The Kraków mayoral election is scheduled to be held on September 27, 2026, to elect the Mayor of Kraków, Poland. A runoff election is scheduled for October 11, 2026, if no candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes for any market where the named candidate is officially declared the winner of the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków. Each candidate-specific market operates independently, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others. All markets are eligible for accelerated resolution if a consensus of credible media outlets definitively report the election outcome, allowing for prompt settlement without waiting for final official certification. This mechanism balances thorough verification with timely closure, reflecting both procedural accuracy and practical market efficiency.
Frequently asked questions
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant shifts in polling data, and unexpected campaign events – such as debates or scandals – could all cause price fluctuations. Changes in the political landscape, such as the emergence of a new candidate or a major policy announcement, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any news related to voter turnout or potential irregularities in the election process could move the market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the evolving probabilities surrounding the Kraków mayoral election.