TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 2:50 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Kingborough Council area as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
Polymarket
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Kingborough Council area as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data for the Kingborough mayoral race. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of current voter intentions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like differing methodologies, sample biases in polls, and the ability of market participants to incorporate a wider range of information – including qualitative factors – into their assessments. It’s important to consider both sources when forming an overall view of the election’s likely outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each candidate's probability of winning. As more shares are purchased for a particular candidate, the price of those shares increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, meaning that significant news events or shifts in public sentiment can quickly impact the market price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information efficiently and provide a real-time assessment of the election’s outlook.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results announced by the Kingborough Council following the mayoral election. The candidate who receives the most votes, as declared by the official election authority, will be considered the winner and determine the settlement of this market. Traders holding shares in the winning candidate will receive a payout, while those holding shares in losing candidates will not.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before Oct 28, 2026. Major endorsements from influential figures, unexpected policy announcements from candidates, and significant shifts in media coverage could all trigger price movements. Furthermore, the release of new polling data, while already reflected in some degree, could cause adjustments if it deviates substantially from current market expectations. Any unforeseen controversies or events involving the candidates could also lead to volatility in the market as traders reassess their probabilities.
