TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 10:53 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether a specific individual will relinquish their role as a diplomatic representative before a designated date. It focuses on the potential change in their official capacity. The outcome depends on their status as a representative prior to the specified timeframe.
Kalshi
If Kimberly Guilfoyle leaves as US Ambassador to Greece before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, assessing how prediction market odds compare to analyst forecasts requires looking at the broader question of whether Kimberly Guilfoyle will remain in her position. While formal analyst predictions on this specific event are limited, general political analysis often focuses on potential diplomatic shifts and personnel changes. This market provides a unique, real-time assessment based on the collective judgment of traders, which may differ from traditional expert opinions due to the wisdom of the crowd effect. It’s a distinct signal, reflecting what participants believe will happen, independent of stated expert views.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether Kimberly Guilfoyle will be out as US Ambassador to Greece before January 1, 2027. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the probability of the event occurring. As more traders participate, the price fluctuates to reflect the collective assessment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's depth and volume indicate the level of confidence and activity surrounding this particular outcome.
This market resolves around Jan 8, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Kimberly Guilfoyle has officially left her position as US Ambassador to Greece before the resolution date. Any official announcement from the US State Department or a similar authoritative source will be considered in determining the outcome. The market will then settle based on whether the event occurred as defined, providing a clear result for all participants.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Any news regarding potential diplomatic reshuffles within the US government, particularly those hinting at a change in the Ambassador to Greece, would likely cause price fluctuations. Political developments impacting US-Greece relations, or any controversies involving Kimberly Guilfoyle, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, broader geopolitical events or shifts in US foreign policy priorities might lead traders to reassess the probability of this event, impacting the price of contracts in this market.
