TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 2:03 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between September 29, 12:00 PM ET and October 6, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between September 29, 12:00 PM ET and October 6, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
It's important to note that prediction market odds reflect what traders believe will happen, based on all available information, while polls capture a snapshot of current public opinion. This market, like others, can diverge from polling data as traders incorporate a wider range of factors, including expert analysis and real-time events. While direct comparisons are difficult, observing differences between the market’s implied probabilities and polling averages can offer insights into the collective wisdom of crowds versus traditional survey methods regarding the Khamenei posting frequency.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that increased buying pressure will raise the price, while increased selling pressure will lower it. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations for the number of posts from Ayatollah Khamenei during the specified period.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the total number of posts made by Ayatollah Khamenei on his official accounts between September 29th and October 6th, 2026. The final count will be determined by publicly available data and assessed for accuracy, ensuring a transparent and verifiable conclusion to this market. Traders should monitor news sources and official channels as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Significant geopolitical events involving Iran, changes in the country’s political climate, or statements from Ayatollah Khamenei himself could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected technical issues affecting his official online presence might also play a role. Furthermore, any major announcements or policy changes from the Iranian government could impact expectations about the frequency of his postings. Monitoring these developments will be crucial for understanding potential movements in this market.
