TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 2:07 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between October 6, 12:00 PM ET and October 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between October 6, 12:00 PM ET and October 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as predicting the posting frequency of a specific individual is not typically the subject of public opinion surveys. However, analysis of past social media activity and statements from analysts could offer a benchmark for comparison. If such analyses suggest a high likelihood of frequent posting, it would align with a higher price for outcomes representing a greater number of posts within this market. Discrepancies between the market and external estimates could indicate unique insights from forecasters.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of posts made by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on his official social media accounts between October 6 and October 13, 2026. The exact number of posts will be determined by a count of publicly available data, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 13, 2026. Major geopolitical events involving Iran, shifts in the country’s internal political landscape, or changes to Ayatollah Khamenei’s official communication strategy could all influence trading activity. An unexpected announcement regarding his health or travel plans could also impact the market. Furthermore, any statements from Iranian officials regarding social media policy or the leader’s online presence could shift forecasters’ expectations, leading to price fluctuations in this market.
