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420,493
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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Time left: 03d:15h:17m
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?
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Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between October 30, 12:00 PM ET and November 6, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between October 30, 12:00 PM ET and November 6, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to polling averages offers insight into collective wisdom versus public opinion. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *stake* on an outcome. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than polls, especially for events with complex factors or where respondents may lack complete information. Currently, it's important to note that no polling data exists for this specific event, making a direct comparison impossible. However, observing how this market evolves can provide a unique perspective on expectations surrounding the number of posts from Ayatollah Khamenei.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event’s likelihood. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the market’s accuracy. The current price movements are driven by information and sentiment surrounding Ayatollah Khamenei’s anticipated online activity during the specified timeframe.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the total number of posts made by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on his official accounts between October 30, 2026, and November 6, 2026, inclusive. The exact methodology for counting posts will be determined by Polymarket and will be publicly available prior to resolution. Traders should review the platform’s guidelines for specific details regarding the resolution process and data sources used.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any official announcements regarding Ayatollah Khamenei’s planned communication schedule, changes in his online activity patterns, or major geopolitical events that might influence his public statements could all impact trading activity. Unexpected political developments within Iran, significant international relations shifts, or even technical issues affecting his official online accounts could also cause the market to react. Monitoring news related to these factors will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the odds for this market.
