TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 2:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between October 20, 12:00 PM ET and October 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between October 20, 12:00 PM ET and October 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of different outcomes. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of expectations. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome drives up its price, indicating increased confidence in that scenario.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of posts made by Ayatollah Khamenei on his official accounts between October 20 and October 27, 2026, will be counted to determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly accessible data and will reflect the actual posting activity during the specified timeframe. This allows for a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any official statements from Ayatollah Khamenei regarding his communication strategy or planned activities could shift expectations. Major political developments within Iran or internationally, particularly those involving regional tensions, might influence his posting frequency. Unexpected changes in Iran's media landscape or access to social media platforms could also play a role. Furthermore, significant health-related news concerning Ayatollah Khamenei could impact his public engagement and, consequently, this market.
