TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 2:01 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between October 13, 12:00 PM ET and October 20, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between October 13, 12:00 PM ET and October 20, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares purchased for a particular outcome, the higher its price rises, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The current trading volume of $17,562 indicates active participation and ongoing adjustments to the perceived probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of posts made by Ayatollah Khamenei on his official accounts between October 13 and October 20, 2026. The exact count will be determined by a review of publicly available data, ensuring transparency and accuracy. The outcome will be the range of posts that contains the actual number of posts made during the specified period.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any official statements regarding Ayatollah Khamenei’s planned activities or communication schedule could influence trader expectations. Major geopolitical events or domestic political developments in Iran might also alter his public engagement. Unexpected changes in his health or a shift in his communication strategy would be key catalysts. Furthermore, any news regarding the accessibility or censorship of his social media accounts could impact the perceived likelihood of a certain number of posts being made by Oct 20, 2026.
