TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$260,393,102

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,894,304,386

408,643

Markets across

39,771

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,493

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Khamenei # posts November 3 - November 10, 2026?
polymarket

Khamenei # posts November 3 - November 10, 2026?

Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM EST - Nov 10, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$1,205
Volume 24h:
$884
176%
Liquidity:
$4,436
45%
Open interest:
$624N/A

<5

 - Polymarket

<5 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 10, 2026

Time left: 07d:10h:07m

Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?

73%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 89¢ buys you 112 shares | Odds: 73% Total Payout: $112 | Net Profit: $12 Multiplier: 1.12x | ROI: 12% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 7 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<5

Trade
73%
15%
Yes 89¢No 43¢
32¢
$382
$70
919%
N/A
N/A
1w 10h
Active
polymarket

20-24

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 2.5¢No 99.5¢
2¢
$501
$220
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 10h
Active
polymarket

10-14

Trade
1%
19%
Yes 2.5¢No 99.6¢
2.1¢
$162
$315
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 10h
Active
polymarket

30-34

Trade
1%
3%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.5¢
1.1¢
$609
$173
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 10h
Active
polymarket

25-29

Trade
1%
3%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.5¢
1.1¢
$576
$140
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 10h
Active
polymarket

40-44

Trade
1%
3%
Yes 1.3¢No 99.5¢
0.8¢
$439
$188
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 10h
Active
polymarket

45-49

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.8¢
1.4¢
$358
$100
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 10h
Active
polymarket

5-9

Trade
6%
10%
Yes 9.1¢No 98¢
7.1¢
$430
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 10h
Active
polymarket

15-19

Trade
4%
Yes 7¢No 99.5¢
6.5¢
$226
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 10h
Active
polymarket

35-39

Trade
4%
Yes 7¢No 99.5¢
6.5¢
$225
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 10h
Active
polymarket

50-54

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
$183
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 10h
Active
polymarket

55-59

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
$183
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 10h
Active
polymarket

60+

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
$161
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 10h
Active
Total markets: 13

Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between November 3, 12:00 PM ET and November 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between November 3, 12:00 PM ET and November 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Khamenei posting frequency market tracks the implied probability of different outcomes regarding the number of posts made by Ayatollah Khamenei between November 3 and November 10, 2026. You’ll find a real-time view of the current odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $887. Total volume for this market is $1,205, reflecting overall trader interest. This allows users to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling data, as predicting the posting frequency of a specific individual isn’t a common subject for public opinion surveys. However, analyzing the market’s movement can offer insights into collective beliefs about potential geopolitical events or internal Iranian dynamics that might influence Ayatollah Khamenei’s communication strategy. If polling data were available on related topics, it would be interesting to see if there’s a correlation between public sentiment and the predictions made in this market.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their beliefs align with the eventual outcome. The current price indicates what the collective wisdom of traders believes is the most likely number of posts from Ayatollah Khamenei during the specified period.

This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on a count of the number of official posts made by Ayatollah Khamenei on his official accounts between November 3 and November 10, 2026. The final number of posts will be sourced from publicly available information and verified to ensure accuracy. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their purchased shares align with the resolved outcome.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major geopolitical events involving Iran, shifts in internal Iranian politics, or changes in Ayatollah Khamenei’s public engagement strategy could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected statements or actions by the Ayatollah, or significant international developments impacting Iran’s regional role, could also cause the market to react. Furthermore, any news regarding the health or availability of Ayatollah Khamenei would likely have a substantial impact on the odds in this market.