TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Kansas Senate Election Winner
⌛Ending Soon
opinion

Who will win the Kansas Senate election?

Oct 19, 2026, 10:21 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Adam Hamilton (D)

 - Opinion

Adam Hamilton (D) - Opinion

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:05h:13m

Adam Hamilton (D)

64%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 64¢ buys you 156 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $156 | Net Profit: $56 Multiplier: 1.56x | ROI: 56% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

Adam Hamilton (D)

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 5h 13m
Active
opinion

Roger Marshall (R)

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 5h 13m
Active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

On Opinion, the dashboard for the Kansas Senate election tracks the implied probability of each candidate winning, based on trading activity. You'll find a price history showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the current 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $0. The total volume traded on this market to date is $0. This allows you to see how the collective wisdom of the crowd is assessing the race and identify periods of significant activity or shifts in sentiment regarding the Kansas Senate election.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polling data frequently focuses on stated voter intentions, while this market represents what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, especially in closely contested races like the Kansas Senate election. Discrepancies may arise from factors like voter turnout assumptions, the influence of undecided voters, or strategic considerations by those trading in this market. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming an overall assessment of the race.

On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome of the Kansas Senate election. The price of each contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices adjust dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that increased buying pressure on a particular candidate will drive up their price and, consequently, their implied probability. This creates a real-time assessment of the race based on the collective judgment of market participants.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the Kansas Senate election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by the relevant election authorities. Trading will cease once a clear winner is declared and reported by these sources. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome, reflecting the actual results of the election.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major developments in the campaign, such as significant endorsements, unexpected fundraising reports, or impactful debate performances, could all shift trader sentiment. Polling data releases, particularly those showing substantial changes in voter preferences, are also likely to influence prices. Furthermore, any unforeseen events impacting the candidates or the broader political landscape could lead to increased trading activity and price adjustments in this market regarding the Kansas Senate election.