TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

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$1,922,627,141

420,368

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Kansas Senate Election Winner
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Who will win the Kansas Senate election?

Oct 14, 2026, 10:15 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$621
Volume 24h:
$4N/A
Liquidity:
$17,326
79%
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Adam Hamilton (D)

 - Predict

Adam Hamilton (D) - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:03h:31m

Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

63%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 63¢ buys you 159 shares | Odds: 63% Total Payout: $159 | Net Profit: $59 Multiplier: 1.59x | ROI: 59% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Adam Hamilton (D)

Trade
63%
7%
Yes 63¢No 38¢
1¢
$10,169
$618
0.26%
0.26%
N/A
1d 3h 31m
Active
predict

Roger Marshall (R)

Trade
38%
Yes 38¢No 63¢
1¢
$7,157
$3
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 3h 31m
Active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polling data aims to capture a snapshot of current voter intentions, while this market aggregates predictions about the *likely* outcome, incorporating factors beyond stated preferences, such as turnout and late-breaking events. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the incentives of participants; poll respondents may be less informed or motivated than traders in this market who have a financial stake in accurately forecasting the result of the Kansas Senate election.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of its probability. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic forecast. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that the prices you see here are solely determined by trading activity on Predict and don't reflect data from any other source.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which candidate is officially declared the winner of the Kansas Senate election by relevant election authorities. The process relies on official results and avoids any reliance on specific resolution sources or oracles. The final outcome will be determined by the official vote count and any subsequent legal challenges that may affect the result of the election.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements from influential figures, shifts in national political trends, or unexpected campaign finance disclosures could all cause traders to reassess their predictions. Polling data releases, particularly those showing substantial changes in voter preferences, would also likely move the market. Additionally, any significant events affecting the candidates themselves – such as scandals or health issues – could lead to substantial price fluctuations in this market for the Kansas Senate election.