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How will Josh Turek fare against Rob Sand?
9+ points behind
- Polymarket
9+ points behind - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:00h:17m
Will Josh Turek run 9 or more points behind Rob Sand?
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Description
The 2026 Iowa general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Josh Turek is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Iowa, and Rob Sand is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Iowa. This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Josh Turek’s vote share in the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election falls below Rob Sand’s vote share in the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election. If Turek’s vote share exceeds Sand’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”. Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate. If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.” If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Iowa Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 2026 Iowa general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Josh Turek is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Iowa, and Rob Sand is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Iowa. This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Josh Turek’s vote share in the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election falls below Rob Sand’s vote share in the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election. If Turek’s vote share exceeds Sand’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”. Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate. If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.” If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Iowa Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different outcome than many publicly available polls regarding the Iowa Attorney General race. While polls may indicate a close contest, this market reflects traders’ collective assessment of the likely margin of victory. It’s important to remember that polls capture a snapshot in time and are subject to sampling error, while prediction markets aggregate a wider range of information and incentives. The difference between these sources can highlight areas where informed traders see opportunities that traditional polling might miss.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This means the market price isn't determined by a single entity, but rather by the supply and demand created by traders actively expressing their views on the Iowa Attorney General race.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final vote count in the Iowa Attorney General race is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official margin of victory declared by the relevant election authorities. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their prediction about the size of the gap between the candidates was accurate, according to the market’s rules. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major news events, such as debates, endorsements, or unexpected campaign developments, could shift voter sentiment and influence trading activity. Changes in polling data, although already reflected to some extent, could also cause adjustments. Additionally, any significant legal challenges or controversies surrounding the candidates could introduce uncertainty and volatility into the market. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could signal a shift in expectations and drive price movements in this market.
