TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 9:30 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Polymarket
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different assessment of the likely outcome than traditional polling averages. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of voter intent, this market aggregates the informed opinions of traders who have a financial stake in correctly predicting the results. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like differing methodologies, biases in polling samples, and the ability of market participants to incorporate a wider range of information, including real-time political developments. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming a view on the Israeli election.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of a particular party finishing fourth. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds remain responsive to new information and changing perceptions about the election. The current price reflects the market's assessment of the likelihood of each party securing the fourth-place position.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official results of the Israeli legislative election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The party that officially receives the fourth-highest number of votes in the election will be considered the winner of this market. The resolution will be based on the official count released by the relevant electoral authorities, ensuring transparency and accuracy. Traders should monitor news sources for updates on the election results as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 28, 2026. Major political events, such as unexpected candidate endorsements, shifts in party alliances, or significant policy announcements, could all influence trader sentiment. Changes in polling data, particularly if they show a clear trend towards or away from a specific party, would also likely cause price movements. Furthermore, any unforeseen events that impact voter turnout or public opinion, such as a major economic shock or a security incident, could also play a role in shaping the market's predictions.
