TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 7:29 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether the Will Together party will win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. Currently, Polymarket gives Will Together a 98.1% probability of achieving this outcome. The market will resolve based on official results reported by the Israeli government’s Central Election Committee (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). Keep an eye on the election results expected to be finalized and reported shortly after the scheduled election date of October 27, 2026, as this will determine the final seat count and market resolution.
Polymarket
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of current voter intent, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating information beyond simple stated preferences. Discrepancies often arise due to factors polls may miss, such as voter turnout biases or late-breaking events. Examining the difference between this market and polling data can provide a more nuanced understanding of the election's potential outcome, and reveal whether traders anticipate shifts not yet reflected in surveys.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in a particular party finishing third. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded, and incorrect ones are penalized. This creates a self-correcting system that aims to converge on the most likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official results of the Israeli legislative election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The party that receives the third-highest number of votes in the election will be considered the winner of this market. The resolution will be based on the official vote count released by the Central Elections Committee of Israel, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the election results are announced.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Major shifts in public opinion, as reflected in updated polling data, could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected political endorsements, scandals involving key candidates, or significant policy announcements could also trigger price adjustments. Furthermore, geopolitical events or changes in the security situation could impact voter behavior and, consequently, the market. Any developments that alter perceptions of a party's chances of securing third place are likely to be reflected in the trading activity and price movements of this market.
