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Vol.
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Resolved Oct 31, 2026
Latest in Politics
Closed: Oct 31, 5:26 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Polymarket
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages for the Israeli election. While polls attempt to capture stated voter intentions, this market reflects what individuals are *willing to wager* on the outcome. This difference can be significant, as betting money introduces a different level of conviction. Discrepancies between the two may indicate skepticism about poll accuracy, strategic voting considerations, or simply a different interpretation of available information. It’s important to consider both sources when forming an overall assessment of the race.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each party’s chance of finishing second. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is driven entirely by supply and demand, with traders acting on their own research and analysis of the political landscape. This creates a dynamic and responsive pricing system.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official results of the Israeli legislative election are verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which party receives the second-highest number of seats in the Knesset following the election. The market will determine which party ultimately secures that position, based on the official count. The resolution process relies on publicly available data and does not require any subjective interpretation or external judgment.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 28, 2026. Major political events, such as unexpected candidate endorsements, shifts in coalition negotiations, or significant policy announcements, could all cause traders to reassess their probabilities. Changes in polling data, even if not fully reflected in current market prices, could also trigger movement. Furthermore, any unforeseen events impacting voter sentiment, like security concerns or economic shocks, could lead to substantial shifts in the odds for the Israeli election second place market. Media coverage and public debates will also play a role.
