TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 1:46 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling data regarding the potential for a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon. While polls often capture stated opinions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on, potentially revealing more genuine beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like information asymmetry, strategic considerations, or differing levels of expertise among participants in each method. It's important to consider both sources when forming a comprehensive view.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of the event occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated assessment of the likelihood of a diplomatic meeting.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a formal, publicly announced diplomatic meeting between official representatives of Israel and Lebanon takes place before the resolution date. The outcome will be based on widely accepted news sources and official statements, ensuring a transparent and objective determination. The market will then settle based on whether such a meeting occurred.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any official statements from Israeli or Lebanese government officials regarding potential talks would be a major catalyst. Escalations in regional tensions or conversely, positive developments in negotiations with other parties could also shift the odds. Unexpected political changes within either country, such as a new government or key personnel appointments, could also influence trader sentiment. Finally, any credible reports of back-channel discussions or mediation efforts would likely move this market.
