TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 9:49 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the number of seats Yashar will win in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. The markets consider various seat ranges, and resolution will be based on official election results or a consensus of credible reporting.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi uses 'above' thresholds for binary outcomes, while Polymarket offers range-based questions and a 'fewer than' question, creating a SKU risk.Hero tip: Carefully consider the implications of exact seat counts. A result of exactly 20 seats will resolve differently on Kalshi vs. Polymarket.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket offers markets asking if Yashar will win fewer than 20 seats, or fall within specific seat ranges (e.g., 20-21, 22-23). Resolution is based on official results from Israel’s Central Election Committee.
- Kalshi: Kalshi offers a series of binary markets, each asking if Yashar will win *above* a certain seat threshold (e.g., above 17, above 20). Resolution is based on the number of seats won by Yashar.
Polymarket
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Yashar in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Yashar in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on the number of seats won by the party Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. If Yashar participates in the election as part of a joint candidate list with other parties or merges with another party before the election, all seats won by that list or merged party are counted toward the total. A seat is considered 'won' when a candidate affiliated with Yashar is declared elected by the relevant electoral authority, and either the time for legal challenges has expired, challenges have been resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the banner under which the candidate was elected, regardless of any subsequent changes. The seat count is determined when the new legislature takes office, even if some seats remain vacant or are still challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats from contested and filled elections are counted, with by-elections included only if seated simultaneously with the main legislature.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences at a single point in time, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to *risk* capital on. This can lead to more accurate forecasts, as traders are incentivized to consider a wider range of factors and potential outcomes. While polls may show general trends, this market provides a quantifiable probability distribution of possible results for the Israeli election seat count. Discrepancies can arise due to biases in polling methodologies or information asymmetries not captured in surveys.