TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 8:25 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Israel's Likud party will secure fewer than 32 seats in the Knesset following the upcoming legislative election. On Polymarket, the leading outcome currently stands at 75.0%. Resolution will be determined by official results reported by Israel's Central Election Committee. Watch the October 27, 2026 election results to see whether Likud's seat count falls below the 32-seat threshold.
Polymarket
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a high probability of Likud losing seats, a view that differs from some recent polling averages. While polls indicate a close race, this market reflects a stronger belief among traders that Likud will not maintain its current seat count. It's important to remember that polls capture a snapshot in time and are subject to methodological limitations, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, continuously updating as new information becomes available. This difference highlights how prediction markets can offer a distinct perspective on the Israeli election outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Likud will lose seats. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring; a higher price indicates a greater perceived likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by news events, political developments, and shifts in trader sentiment. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the evolving expectations surrounding the Israeli election.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Israeli election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final seat distribution in the Knesset following the election. The market will determine whether Likud has lost seats compared to its current holdings at the time of the election. Traders should monitor official announcements from the Central Elections Committee for the definitive outcome that will trigger settlement of this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major political announcements from key parties, shifts in public opinion revealed by updated polls, and unexpected endorsements or scandals involving prominent candidates could all influence trading activity. Additionally, significant geopolitical events or changes in the security situation could alter voter sentiment and, consequently, the price of shares in this market. Any news that alters perceptions of Likud's electoral prospects is likely to drive movement in the Israeli election outcome.
