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Israel Election: Together # of seats?
kalshi
polymarket

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

Volume:
$108,818

11-13

 - Polymarket

11-13 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 9:58 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

11-13

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,923
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,830
N/A
N/A
$3,330
1w 1d 22h
Yes
kalshi

Above 10

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,640
N/A
N/A
$1,168
1w 1d 22h
Yes
polymarket

17-19

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,151
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 7h
No
polymarket

14-16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,799
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 7h
No
polymarket

<8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,873
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 7h
No
polymarket

20+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,695
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 7h
No
kalshi

Above 20

View
0%
69%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$506
N/A
N/A
$306
1w 1d 22h
No
polymarket

8-10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,073
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 7h
No
kalshi

Above 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,267
N/A
N/A
$2,019
1w 1d 22h
No
kalshi

Above 12

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,050
N/A
N/A
$1,635
1w 1d 22h
No
kalshi

Above 30

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
1w 1d 22h
No
kalshi

Above 25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
1w 1d 22h
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This event group concerns the number of seats the 'Together' party will win in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. Markets exist to predict both specific seat ranges and whether 'Together' will exceed certain seat thresholds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses 'above' thresholds, while Polymarket uses 'fewer than' and range-based questions, creating a divergence in how outcomes are defined.Hero tip: When comparing probabilities across platforms, remember to account for the differing question framing. A high probability on a Kalshi 'above X seats' market doesn't directly translate to a high probability on a Polymarket 'fewer than Y seats' market.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket offers markets asking if Together will win fewer than 8 seats, or within specific ranges (8-10, 11-13, 14-16, 17-19, 20+). Resolution relies on the official results from Israel’s Central Election Committee.
  • Kalshi: Kalshi offers markets resolving to 'Yes' if Together wins above specific seat counts (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30). Resolution is based on the number of seats won by Together, including seats won as part of a joint candidate list or merged party.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Together in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Together contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Together merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Together in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on the number of seats won by the joint electoral list of Bennett 2026 and Yesh Atid, referred to as Together (B’Yachad), in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election. If the two parties contest as a unified list—a renamed or expanded list representing both parties—all seats won by that list count toward the Together seat total. If the parties run on separate lists, their seats are not combined, and Together’s seat count is zero. A list representing only one party does not qualify as Together. Seats are counted when candidates affiliated with the specified party are declared elected, legal challenges have expired or been resolved, and the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the banner under which the candidate was elected, regardless of later changes. The count occurs when the new legislature convenes, including any seats filled in partial elections but excluding by-elections seated after the main election. If the election is postponed beyond one year or cancelled, markets resolve at the last fair market price.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the predicted number of seats the Together party will win in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. It aggregates trading activity across both platforms to provide a consensus view of the market. Currently, combined volume stands at $108,818, with $11,562 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of expectations surrounding the Israeli election seat count, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders on both venues. The dashboard visualizes the probabilities associated with different seat ranges, offering a dynamic assessment of the political landscape.

Prediction market odds often offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those preferences. This can lead to differences, as market prices incorporate not only the likelihood of an outcome but also the perceived information advantage of informed traders. Polling averages can be susceptible to biases and inaccuracies, whereas the price action in this market is driven by real-money bets. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming an overall assessment of the Israeli election.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in Israeli public opinion, as reflected in updated polling data, would likely cause price adjustments. Key political developments, such as changes in party leadership, coalition negotiations, or significant policy announcements, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected economic news or geopolitical events affecting Israel could introduce volatility. Furthermore, any credible reports regarding electoral integrity or potential disruptions to the election process could move the market. Traders should closely follow these developments to anticipate potential price movements.