TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 1:32 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Polymarket
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of voter intention, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on. This difference can be significant, as market participants have a financial incentive to be accurate in their assessments. Discrepancies between this market and polls may indicate doubts about the polls’ methodology, potential biases, or unforeseen events influencing voter behavior. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming an overall view of the election’s likely outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes for the Shas seat count. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, providing a real-time assessment of collective predictions. The current top outcome, as indicated by share price, is the one with the highest implied probability.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Israeli election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of seats ultimately won by the Shas party in the Knesset will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on the final, certified seat allocation announced by the relevant electoral authorities. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome, aligning with the official election results.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Major political developments, such as significant shifts in party alliances or scandals involving key political figures, could alter voter sentiment and impact predictions. Unexpected economic news or geopolitical events could also play a role. Furthermore, the release of new polling data, even if it contradicts existing trends, could influence trading activity. Any event that changes the perceived likelihood of Shas winning a specific number of seats has the potential to cause noticeable fluctuations in this market.
