TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 2:21 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Polymarket
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of Otzma achieving a specific seat count. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by new information, political developments, and shifts in sentiment, creating a dynamic and responsive indicator of expectations regarding the election results.
This market resolves around Nov 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final, official results of the 2026 Israeli Knesset election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of seats Otzma ultimately wins in the Knesset, as declared by the Central Elections Committee, will determine the outcome of this market. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their shares align with the final seat count. It’s important to note that the resolution will be based on official results, not preliminary counts or projections.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 30, 2026. Major political announcements from Otzma or its key allies, shifts in the broader political landscape, and significant changes in polling data are all potential catalysts. Unexpected endorsements, scandals involving key candidates, or major geopolitical events could also trigger price movements. Furthermore, any news relating to the formation of potential coalition governments could impact how traders assess Otzma’s chances of gaining seats. Monitoring these developments will be crucial for understanding the market’s fluctuations.
