TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 10:42 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Democrats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by The Democrats in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Polymarket
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by The Democrats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by The Democrats in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a high probability of the Democratic camp winning fewer than 8 seats. This contrasts with recent polling averages, which indicate a more uncertain outcome with a wider range of potential seat totals. It's important to note that prediction markets represent a different form of information aggregation than polls – markets reflect what people are *willing to bet* on, incorporating not just stated preferences but also beliefs about the information held by others. This can lead to differences between the two, as markets may be more responsive to late-breaking developments or subtle shifts in political dynamics.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s collective assessment of the likelihood of the Democratic camp achieving a specific number of seats in the Knesset. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Israeli election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of seats won by the Democratic camp, as officially declared by the Israeli Central Elections Committee, will determine the outcome of this market. The resolution will be based on the final, certified seat allocation following the election, ensuring a clear and objective determination of the winning outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the election results are announced.
Several factors could significantly impact this market between now and Oct 27, 2026. Major political events, such as shifts in party leadership, the formation of new alliances, or significant policy announcements, could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected economic developments or geopolitical events impacting Israel could also play a role. Additionally, the release of new public opinion polls, while not directly reflected in the market, could prompt traders to reassess their positions. Any news that alters perceptions of the Democratic camp’s chances of success has the potential to move this market.
