TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 4:18 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Blue and White party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Blue and White's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Blue and White passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Blue and White contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Blue and White merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Polymarket
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Blue and White party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Blue and White's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Blue and White passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Blue and White contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Blue and White merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages for the Israeli election. While polls often focus on stated intentions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *risk* capital on, potentially revealing more genuine beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like poll weighting, sampling bias, and the inherent incentive for accurate forecasting within a prediction market. It's important to consider both data sources when forming an informed opinion about the likely outcome of the election.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the Blue and White party's final vote share. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome being correct. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by new information, political developments, and shifts in trader sentiment. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective wisdom of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Israeli election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote share for the Blue and White party, as reported by the Central Elections Committee, will determine the winning outcome. Traders who correctly predicted the vote share will receive a payout proportional to their holdings, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 27, 2026. Major political events, such as televised debates, unexpected candidate endorsements, or shifts in coalition negotiations, could all trigger price movements. Additionally, the release of new polling data, particularly if it deviates significantly from current expectations, could influence trader sentiment. Finally, any unforeseen geopolitical events or security concerns in the region could also introduce volatility into this market, as they might affect voter behavior and the overall election landscape.
